Economic Schedule for Week of February 26, 2023-expect some really shitty data points in housing, autos, retail
The key reports this week are Case-Shiller house prices and February vehicle sales (ded and gettin' ded'r). For manufacturing, the January ISM Index, and the February Dallas and Richmond Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.
Additional information not from article
And since muh markets are 100% rigged don't expect them to reflect what that data sez either.
Cap#1 is purely on the Eco. data coming and with all the talk about continuing to "stay the course" with rate hikes and "we might do 50bp next time" with the combined drops from Tuesday and Friday they still have it set for 25 bp and the highest probability for 50bp raise was at 35% at the lows of Friday-it's now at 27.7%-cap#2 and 30y mortgages are quietly back to just under 7%-cap#3
You still have plenty of Financial institutions that have mark-to-model (fantasy) vs. mark-to-market (real prices) and usually when you have any places saying that "assets (they have) are hard to value" it usually means they are using mark-to-model because the real values are not reflected in it's books.
Also some retail earnings from Wal-Fart, Costco, Dollar Tree, Target and the cost of carrying inventory-disguised as increased theft at some places so they can write it off in a different accting bucket-is continuing to kill them.
Earnings are all relative as they basically have a waiver by the FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board) to put out whatever they want-I forget the actual number of it but it's been in place for a long time plus when was the last time you saw someone actually prosecuted for producing cooked books?…when a place like Alphabet (and just one example) can place $27B for one (1) Quarter in the "goodwill" accounting bucket-which means it's an amount that is written off at full value…stock buybacks at record highs-and only increasing by each quarter and even good ole 'Uncle Warren' upped his share buyback for Berkshire Hathaway and he lost almost $23B last Q >>18409552 pb
Wal-Mart already lowered expectations so look for a potential "beat" on those lowered expectations and Lending Tree reports on Monday…that should be a blood-bath based on refinancing activity falling throught those year 2000 lows last week. Plus the meme stock ijits get to fret over AMC on Tuesday……and anyone who thought that was a long term investment sure found out the hard way it wasn't
The smartest person in the meme stock craze was the kid who was given Gamestop shares when they were in the single digit level…and then sold then into the frenzy and made 6 figures…so bravo little man you did much better than all the "professionals" did..most of them are still on muh HODL mantra.
Plus full retard Atlanta FED updates it's hilarious GDPNOW forecast-cap #4 that was raised from 2.5% to 2.7% on Friday and that is done on Monday to coincide with the Pending Home slaes and Durable goods Order data…cuz -4% decrease is great stuff but if it 'beats" that then they will celebrate that "it wasn't as bad as it coulda been". Plus the various FED Regional surveys
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
The housing markets are rolling over so that gonna be bad no matter how the NAR spins it. The coming inflation data March 14th should start to show the OER decrease (Owner's Equivalent Rent) because that is a 5 month lagging data set-it certainly helps them out a lot when rents go up cuz they say "well we don't see it"…cuz it's delayed by 5 months. So they are setting up for the pause even though theFriday showed another (3) 25 bp hikes-Ima sticking to two since the "data" will allow them to stop and they'll have created some 'crisis' (by highlighting Credit Suisse-even though that has been a problem for decades) and drop them via an 'emergency' rate cut.
Remember our markets are on hair trigger cuz of all the zero days to expiration options they are using now and they did not help on FRiday
>>18367436, >>18367785 pb JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Warns of ‘Volmageddon 2.0’ Risk in Options: potential Flash Crash due to over-sized zero days to expiry option over-use translation included
And as I've mentioned soooo many times the Bank of Japan is not going to change anything-the "new boss" has already stated such-but they tried to make everyone think it would be different-even Larry at Blackrock tried to shake the tree about 10 days ago saying "oh they are going tighten so you'd better sell yer Japanese stocks….to us"
Incoming BOJ chief Ueda says current low rates appropriate
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-11787291/INSTANT-VIEW-Incoming-BOJ-chief-Ueda-says-current-low-rates-appropriate.html
Out this morning is a new poll and inflation is still at a 41 year high and they went in last week and bought moar JGBs (din't post it becasue it will only just continue) Godzilla has warned about this many times over the last year….and he been right. According to this "poll"-we know how those go…66% of respondents "back" Muh Ukraine.
Kishida cabinet's approval rating climbs to 43%
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Kishida-cabinet-s-approval-rating-climbs-to-43-Nikkei-poll
aaaand they trotted out Larry Summers for the slow pitch for CBDCs and he was instrumental (along with Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan) in allowing the exponential increase in derivatives and made sure they were not regulated at all…literally the entire financial structure is self-regulating and SEC, FINRA (allows Robinhood to operate despite knowing that CEO Vlad Tenev doesn't have a license-they all know it) a coming and he will likely replace Janet Yellen when the shit starts rerally hitting the fan (incidentally her plane is still at Rzsesow Aiport in Poland-where Potato spent a grand total of 3h last week visiting Zelensky by a 20h train ride -plus "visit time")
Former Treasury Secretary Admits Doubts On Soft Economic Landing - Looks To Global Institutions For Solutions
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/former-treasury-secretary-admits-doubts-soft-economic-landing-looks-global-institutions
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for January from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 4.0% decrease in durable goods orders.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for January. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February.
9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for December 2022. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for December.
The consensus is for a 6.0% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for December, down from 6.8% in November.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. (the refinance index fell through it's last lows from 2000 and is now at 1995 level)
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.0, up from 47.4 in January.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 197 thousand initial claims, up from 192 thousand last week.
All day: Light vehicle sales for February. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 15.0 million SAAR in February, down from 15.7 million in January (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for February.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/02/schedule-for-week-of-february-26-2023.html
>>18397699 These Charts Scared (not just that though) the Stock Market into a 700-Point Drop Tuesday (translations included)
And did it get any better by Friday?…nope…that why Larry Summers is surfacing cause he gonna "save it" as he 'appears to be rationale' but make no mistake…he doesn't come out and counter-act all the "soft-landing" rhetoric from the FRB for no reason.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed