'''Mkt Fag: Equities pushed higherโฆ.cause why not? and then choppy seas ahoy Muh FOMC is impotent but we all "waiting for them" edition
Data today:U.S. home prices continued to post significant year-over-year gains in March, up by 20.9%, another record high according to CoreLogic HPI. "The largest we have measured in the 45-year history of the CoreLogic Home Price Index." That speaks for itself-the conundrum here is the pool of qualified buyers has been shrinking drastically and unless they pop out the 'NINJA' (No Income No Job) loans again this entire market will drop ded very soon (it already has ftmp) but prices will remain elevated because of the unwillingness to drop home prices (greedy realtors and uneducated sellers) trying to squeeze every last devaluing $ out of it. JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover) report out today see here: >>16201190 JOLTS report pb And it "shows" a disasterโฆthat with GDP negative a record # of Job openings exist and why is that? Everyone is incentivized to not work and collect money, sit on ass basically and wait for the gubmint check to arrive. US Factory Orders surged 2.2% MoM in March and February was revised up from a 0.5% decline to a 0.1% MoM rise-this is the biggest jump in US Factory orders since May 2021-but QUITE a divergence in PMI vs new ordersโฆI'm sure that is just a "one-time event"-kek since the MSM report it as a"beat". Banks got 'upgraded today including te biggest tubs of shit there is JP Morgan and Moran Stanley to "outperform"-they have dropped quite a bit since the start of the year so that is not entirely unusual cause nothing goes straight down (except Ag-kek) or to zero but they ignore too much and just try to trigger people into buying them-trade them in/out on the movement but these are NOT long haul investments. TSLA din't do much after yesterdays parabolic rise into the close and it got down to $888.59 as it's LOD and closed on lower then avg volume-909.25+6.31 (+0.70%). TWTR pretty indifferent today too and WELL below it's daily avg-48.87-0.27 (-0.55%). That is in a total holding pattern. Can't get to the offer price and nowhere near it's recent high of $51.70 on April 25th.
Choppy session to start with it waffling between red and green and we habs our first big block in the NAS at 11:16AM est @ 1.34B that pushed it even higher (was reported as a sale-red) but prior to that @ 10:48am est it was STRAIGHT UP in all the majors and pretty much a roller-coaster in all the indices in the early hours prior to Europe closing and they got it to the HOD just as that closed. They don't really know what to do today so ain't much as it's been choppy and direction-less after that initial bumps up @ 9:46am and 10:46am. But then we had some problems starting right around 1:45pm est across board and it sold off pretty hard. DOW/NAS on the neckline at 2:15 with the Russel having a decent day still at (+0.97%) at the same time but looking tired. Witness the spikes up on the NAS as it plays around on the neckline and then POOF!! Straight up. This is pretty hilarious to watch-especially L2 data as it's just kitchen sink shit. MUSTโฆ.GOโฆโฆHIGHER. VIX smash continues is such an unnatural way see article from yesterdayโฆ.>>16196464 pb >The Head Of The Plunge Protection Team Is Quitting >https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/world-news/the-head-of-the-plunge-protection-team-is-quitting/
>>16201606 pb Tiger Global Craters 15% In April, Bringing YTD Loss To Record 44% As Melvin Capital's Implosion Continues
Treasury complex-see cap#3 Yields on 10yr cooled off too as they need this below 3% to not raise 75bp but they will do one of three things: raise 50bp (this is expected), raise 75bp (dis wut muh gut says) or reverse the recent rise-not completely out of the question but not very likely as that would certainly show panic. They took 2% outta the 10yr yield by about 10am est so this is the 'cooperation' needed to not do 75bp as 50bp is 'expected'. 3% in Treasury 5-, 10- and 30-year bonds drew in real-money buyers, according to brokers that saw the flow. The purchases were particularly heavy in 10-years, multiple brokers add. Size was described as healthy Monday with the buying continuing today. Simply put, as we noted last week, TINA is dead and bonds are an alternative now. In fact, bonds are the most attractive relative to stocks since 2011. The yield curve (3s10s) flattened today, nearing inversion once again. Heading into tomorrow's Fed meeting, the 50bps hike is fully priced into STIRs (and odds of a 75bp hike in June are rising). In fact, since the last FOMC Meeting (where they hiked 25bps) see link below
here is tomorrows meeting from CME FedWatch: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html hit 15 Jun22 to get June projection
US$/Muh Yen/Ruble/FOREX-see cap#4 for Ruble Dollar cooled off a bit and Muh ยฅ as wellbut the Ruble is ON A TEAR today and was up as much as 5%and has cooled off from that as the day wore on and stayed at around +3% and highest since March 2020 0.000449 +3.18%. Muh ยฅ got pushed back above 130 and was flat @ 130.18 yesterdays close before moving slightly higher and then turned away. They are really trying to keep this below 130 but over time it is fruitless. BIG BATTLE at this mostly psychological # and finally turned it away just after 1pm est. It did nuffin today.
Oil/Energy WTI -2.37(-2.25%) dropped after it got tired from yesterday's panic bid-it had a cup on it yesterday and had some biggish PM buys at right around 9:16am est and some bigger sales starting at 11:04am est but the same here as the majors-choppy as fuq. NatGas surged back above $8, to its highest level since 2008-see article below on Natty. It backed off from $8 but still up 3.19% for the day
In muh write-offs newsโฆthey did not have to do but are 'motivated' to tell a story-"see doze big bad Russians made us do this!" In the past they would simply ignored anything like this until they couldn't. Simply carry it at at fantasy valuation (mark-to-model vs. mark-to-market) after all that is what all the banks are doing with Evergrande debt-which is worth way less.
BP writes off $25.5 billion on its Russia pullout, but oil and gas profits soar
https://newsinsideera.com/business/bp-writes-off-25-5-billion-on-its-russia-pullout-but-oil-and-gas-profits-soar/
>>16202364 pb see this too re: BP another source from soc. media but just a statement
US Gulf Coast Exports Record Amount Of Fuel As East Coast Supplies Sink
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-gulf-coast-exports-record-fuel-east-coast-supplies-sink
Natural Gas Futures, Cash Prices Pop Amid Signs of Supply/Demand Imbalance
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/natural-gas-futures-cash-prices-pop-amid-signs-of-supply-demand-imbalance/
Metals-got a bounce on both sides- Au and Ag and after the clubbing it's gotten totally expected but got a little tired right at 11:00am est and has cooled off-look for the paper dumps here to bring it back down as they 'print' weekly #s for all the reports at 1:30pm est but they have already pretty much have done the damage to it so they may let it stay around here-got Ag well below the 200DMA already so mission accomplished. It did get pretty active volume wise so they are still attacking it as Ag has about 11k contracts just show up @5:28am est and also got it's usual dump right on the NYMEX open. It's hasn't done much since the drop and then bounce but has worked it's way back down. Gold/Silver ratio 82.704 +0.492 (+0.60%) an improvement on this today with the drop in Ag of -0.29% and Au +0.17%
https://goldprice.com/gold-silver-ratio/
Some Headlines
in coming apart news from yesterday-thin markets and zero depth of book but muh holiday โฆthis will not be a one-off thing as they are trying to 'splain it. 15 years ago I would have believed this (kinda) but since everything is controlled by 'bots this is a cover as someone tried to sneak in something YUGE while the eyes (people) were not as prevalent and they could not get it executed so they came up with muh "fat-finger" bullshit-cause it has worked before. There used to be a time when the big bois would "go to the Hamptons" and some poor sucker always had to stay behind and watch the desk but those days are long over-so look for moar of these examples to "pop" up. Think they may know something about the FOMC meeting tooโฆafter all it is tomorrow and the meeting(s) began today.
Citi behind trade that caused brief European share plunge
The Stockholm OMX 30 equity benchmark index was one of the hardest hit, falling by 8% at one point following a five-minute dive, before paring most of its losses to trade down 1.7% at 1229 GMT. Citi declined to comment.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/02/citi-behind-trade-that-caused-brief-european-share-plunge.html
and it's this shit that was Sky'd starting just after Hussein was re-elected in 2012-major split between these and the SPX that just got worse (this the start of the $27T stealth bailout being 'applied') >>16201817 pb here is an example
U.S. junk bonds drop to lowest in over two years ahead of Fed meeting
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-junk-bonds-drop-lowest-over-two-years-ahead-fed-meeting-2022-05-03/
and muh russia news-because none of this shit was going to happen before all this Muh Ukrianeโฆ./s
Putin issues decree to hit 'unfriendly' nations with export blocks in potential blow to global economy
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/putin-decree-export-blocks-global-economy
https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
https://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
some text taken from here and a cap
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-stocks-bid-ahead-fed-natgas-soars-2008-highs