Economic Schedule for Week of June 16, 2024-World Markets waking up
The key reports this week are May Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home Sales.
(Plus another hilarious “update” from Atlanta Fed on GDPNOW-Latest estimate: 3.1 percent – June 07, 2024 and “updated” on Tuesday, June 18th)
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
(Keep an eye on muh Yenas the trend line is still intact on the charts heading to that intervention level of 160 per US$ and unless they have a permanent facility at the NYFED to do what they did in late April/early May-using cash-they will be selling US Treasuries to fund it that way)
https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/currency
Gold is working on a head and shoulders top (the right one almost complete) on 6m chart but that does not mean it drops-just an observation. Silver got smacked below $30 on two consecutive Friday sessions and briefly popped back over but under again.Rememberthis and all commodities (ftmp some exceptions Lithium for example) are all paper trades with no physical trading and that materializes out of nowhere in both directions-not just down mind you-but hedges do get put on both sides-speaking to the “whooshes” down in minutes mostly….buy it and forget about price as Ag will be unobtanium at some point due it’s about 200 years of price manipulation-once they picked Silver as the industrial metal there was no going back no matter what happened.
For manufacturing, Industrial Production, and the NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys, will be released this week.
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of -13.0, up from -15.6.
8:30 AM: Retail sales for May is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales.(bets taken-Duke Brother style on this being yet another surprise)
ProTip: certainly
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for May. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 78.6%.
All US markets will be closed in observance of Juneteenth National Independence Day…..:I
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
10:00 AM: The June NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 46, up from 45 last month. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for May. The consensus is for 1.380 million SAAR, up from 1.360 million SAAR in April.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 240 thousand initial claims, down from 242 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 4.5, unchanged from 4.5 last month.
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for May from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.10 million SAAR, down from 4.14 million.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/06/schedule-for-week-of-june-16-2024.html
Watch for the opposite in this-prolly not but keep in mind cuz rates are down all over by the system preparing for the ‘selection’ so you vote for a Democratic candidate. They always make it look better in national election years.
Emerging-Market Bond Rally Threatened as Hawkish Flags Multiply
> Emerging-market local bonds have handed investors a loss of about 1% this year, after rallying by more than 6% in 2023 In contrast, a corresponding gauge of dollar debt has returned 2.5% since the end of December.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/emerging-market-bond-rally-threatened-as-hawkish-flags-multiply-1.2085819
Wall Street is divided over the rise of private credit
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-is-divided-over-the-rise-of-private-credit-140058228.html
So this below from muh “sources” means they will and this is telling you they will in a subtle way. It’ll be “we decided to”. Last Tuesday yields jumped and it was blamed on rumors of Macron stepping down-total bullshit as he ain’t going nowhere lest he’s dragged kicking and screaming.
ECB in no rush to discuss French bond rescue, sources say
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/ecb-no-rush-discuss-french-bond-rescue-sources-2024-06-16/
https://www.cnbc.com/markets/
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield